Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $112,800 as Whale Liquidations Clash With Institutional Buys

Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds $112,800 as Whale Liquidations Clash With Institutional Buys

BTC faces $113K ceiling amid $12.7B whale selling, Strategy’s $217M purchase, ETF outflows, and Fed cut bets | That's TradingNEWS

TradingNEWS Archive 9/9/2025 2:58:27 PM
Crypto BTC/USD BTC USD

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds Above $112K as Whale Selling Meets Institutional Demand

BTC Price Consolidation Around $113K Ceiling

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $112,569–$112,830, holding a narrow range after dipping to $111,200 earlier in the session and topping at $113,226. The market cap stands at $2.24 trillion, with 24-hour volume near $39.5 billion. Intraday resistance has tightened between $113,200–$113,500, with $114,000 acting as a psychological ceiling. Momentum remains fragile as whales have liquidated roughly 115,000 BTC ($12.7 billion) over the past month — the heaviest selling since 2022 — creating nervous undertones despite price resilience.

Institutional Buys Offset Whale Liquidations

Heavy selling contrasts with new accumulation by corporate treasuries. Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 1,955 BTC for $217.4M at an average $111,196, lifting its holdings to 638,460 BTC worth over $7.1B. Japan’s Metaplanet (TYO:3350) added 136 BTC ($1.52M), bringing its balance to 20.1 BTC, while El Salvador marked the anniversary of Bitcoin’s legal tender law with a 21 BTC buy. Yet, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $368M in outflows last week, far below July’s billion-dollar inflows. Simultaneously, Ethereum ETFs absorbed over $200M in inflows, signaling capital rotation into ETH as a competing reserve asset.

Macro Drivers: Fed Cuts and Liquidity Surge

BTC is benefiting from a softer macro backdrop. The U.S. jobs report revised growth down by 911K, boosting the probability of a Fed rate cut on Sept 17 to nearly 100% (CME FedWatch). Lower yields and a weaker dollar are historically constructive for crypto, but enthusiasm remains muted compared to gold, which set new highs at $3,691/oz, and the S&P 500 at 6,500. Traders are cautious: while monetary easing reduces downside risk, it hasn’t yet translated into breakout demand for BTC.

Technical Breakdown: Bullish Staircase vs. ETF Drag

The 4-hour chart shows higher lows since a local bottom at $109,343, with buyers stepping in near $111,500. Support zones cluster at $111,000–$110,600, while a breakdown exposes $109,000 and possibly $107,000. Resistance stands at $113,500–$114,000, then $120,000–$124,000 if volume confirms. Daily RSI sits at 50.5, neutral but leaning bullish; momentum remains positive at 3,777, while MACD is negative at −961, reflecting consolidation. MAs paint a mixed picture: short-term 10–30 day averages cluster around $111,800–$113,500, while 100- and 200-day EMAs support at much lower levels, underlining structural strength.

 

Derivatives and Options Point to Uncertainty

Perpetual futures funding rebounded to 11% from last week’s bearish 4%, showing reduced conviction. Options flow leans neutral-to-bearish, with rising demand for puts as traders hedge downside below $108,000. CryptoQuant data shows retail order flow gaining dominance as whale-sized trades thin, a sign of consolidation. The CVD indicator still reflects sellers in control over the past 90 days, suggesting large players haven’t fully re-entered.

Cycle Expectations and Q4 Outlook

BTC already hit $124,517 in August, and debate rages whether that was the peak for 2025 or if Q4 will deliver the traditional “Uptober & Pumpvember.” Analysts are split: some models point to a potential run toward $150,000 by year-end if seasonal and macro forces align, while skeptics argue Q4 highs are not guaranteed, warning of potential retests toward $100,000–$103,000 before a renewed push. The halving in April continues to tighten supply, but without ETF inflows recovering above July’s pace, upside fuel is limited.

Altcoin Rotation and Market Sentiment

While Bitcoin consolidates, altcoins are drawing capital. ETH (ETH-USD) rose to $4,354, with inflows into ETH ETFs marking a structural shift. XRP (XRP-USD) gained to $3.01, and Solana (SOL-USD) climbed to $215. Retail traction is building around Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a Solana-based L2 raising $14.6M in presale, promising faster transfers and staking utility. This underscores that part of the market is seeking growth in newer ecosystems while BTC grinds sideways.

Verdict on BTC-USD

Data points to a Buy stance with caution. As long as $111,000–$112,000 holds, the structure favors continuation higher, with $114,000–$120,000 as near-term upside targets. A decisive close above $113,500 on volume would validate further gains. Risk remains if whales extend their sell-off and ETFs continue bleeding; in that case, BTC could revisit $107,000–$109,000. But with Strategy’s $217M purchase, El Salvador’s consistent buying, and dovish Fed policy, the broader tilt stays bullish into Q4.

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